Fresh off a four-way primary race that drew millions in outside spending, Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 percentage points in Iowa’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, a new September 20th Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. 

“This is definitely a competitive race,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. She said the poll contains other “warning signs” for Ernst and noted that this is the first Iowa Poll conducted since Ernst first ran in 2014 in which she has trailed her general election opponent.

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Democrats need to win a net of three seats to tie the Senate (control would depend on who wins the White House — the vice president determines a 50-50 split) or four seats to take it outright. The party has very promising pick-up opportunities in Colorado and Arizona. Democrats have a tough seat to defend in Alabama. 

 

Should Democrats retake the seat that Tom Harkin once held, there’s a good chance it will be the final piece to a Democratic majority.