Project Guardrail: Iowa 2020

Fresh off a four-way primary race that drew millions in outside spending, Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 percentage points in Iowa’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. 


“This is definitely a competitive race,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. She said the poll contains other “warning signs” for Ernst and noted that this is the first Iowa Poll conducted since Ernst first ran in 2014 in which she has trailed her general election opponent.

Democrats need to win a net of three seats to tie the Senate (control would depend on who wins the White House — the vice president determines a 50-50 split) or four seats to take it outright. The party has very promising pick-up opportunities in Colorado and Arizona. Democrats have a tough seat to defend in Alabama. 

 

Should Democrats retake the seat that Tom Harkin once held, there’s a good chance it will be the final piece to a Democratic majority.

47 Democrats
53 Republicans

Iowa Election Results by County: 2012 President, 2014 US Senate, 2016 President, and 2018 Governor 

In 2018 Democrats began to reclaim territory in once reliable Iowa, picking up 2 seats in the US House of Representatives, and fielding Democrat Fredd Hubbel, who ran a competitive race for Governor, ultimately losing to Republican Kim Reynolds by 2.8% 

Using technology to empower Iowa voters

How we beat Joni Ernst: remember Tom Harkin?

Greenfield has her work cut out for her. Joni Ernst is a darling of a formidable Iowa GOP, and is proving to be a shrewd campaigner, willing to distance herself and Donald Trump when necessary. However, it is undeniable that Iowa Democrats made impressive gains across demographics in 2018, and those voters appear to be willing to give Greenfield a look. A successful Iowa strategy will build on those gains, focusing on at least the following areas:

 

  1. First, Iowa has "no excuse mail-in voting" election which provides Democrats ample opportunity to run up the score with an aggressive absentee and vote-by-mail program targeting liberal strongholds like Johnson County as well as building on gains Democrats made in 2018 across the state.

  2. Second, Democrats need to maximize turnout among voters of color and suburban women in Sioux City and the Des Moines metro area, in particular.

  3. Third, 2018 showed signs of a resurgence of support in rural farm communities located in areas like Worth, Mitchel, and Howard counties. These communities once reliably voted for Democrats like Tom Harkin and have been hit hard by the economic recession. Greenfield needs to build on those gains.

  4. Finally, Democrats need to persuade a significant share of 2016 third-party voters who voted in 2018. Especially, targeting those living in areas with substantial populations like Scott, Linn, Clinton, and Dubuque County.

 Our Plan

We have developed a sophisticated digital marketing and ground game strategy that leverages artificial intelligence to execute impactful programs in key Iowa counties and constituencies

Dominate Healthcare

Joni Ernst has a dangerous record on healthcare for Medicaid expanded Iowa, voting to end coverage for 187,000 Iowans, including thousands of farmers and ranchers at a time when they need the help most.

Ernst isn't for Iowa: 

Joni wants the job more than he wants to do the job. She is the worst kind of politician because she will sell her political soul and march locked step with the likes of Donald Trump if she thinks it will better serve her – no profiles in courage here. 

Enhanced Vote-By-Mail: 

We used artificial intelligence to develop a comprehensive support system for vote-by-mail and absentee programs in Iowa which has a no excuse  vote-by-mail program. Help us take advantage of it so we can run up the score.

 Get involved right now!

Please make a donation right now to support John Hickenlooper and a Colorado victory this November, then increase your impact 3x by sharing this page with family and friends.

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Official Reports:

Additional Resources

Polling: click HERE for the latest polling resources

Email: click HERE to sign up for email alerts

Text: click HERE to sign up for text message alerts

Data: click HERE to view the Iowa turnout data

Questions?

Teddy can help. Just click HERE and ask away!

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